In his latest analysis of Apple’s supply chain movements, Ming-Chi Kuo said that the iPhone Ultra will be unveiled the same day as the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, but it likely won’t be officially launched at the same time as those devices.
The iPhone Ultra will be a little late, says Kuo. It will be announced in September, together with the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, but it will actually start shipping about a month later, just like the iPhone X did when it launched.
iPhone Ultra to Be Announced Alongside iPhone 18 Pro Models
Kuo likened Apple’s plan this fall to a repeat of the “iPhone X story” in 2017. That year, Apple announced the iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, and iPhone X on September 12, with pre-orders for the iPhone 8 models starting three days later. However, it was six weeks before pre-orders for the iPhone X went live.
Even with a price point that’s roughly two times the price of the company’s current flagship, the iPhone 17 Pro Max, Kuo expects strong sales “at least through the end of 2026,” which could mean the iPhone Ultra would “sell out immediately after pre-orders open, with delivery lead times quickly stretching to 4–6 weeks or longer and remaining there through December.”
In other words, even if you have north of two thousand dollars to spare for a foldable iPhone, you might have to wait a month or more to get it.
Apple May Repeat the iPhone Ultra Launch Strategy.
Apple could similarly announce the foldable model with its other new iPhones while delaying pre-orders and commercial availability until the fourth quarter as inventories build.
Kuo believes the foldable iPhone would cost between $2,300 and $2,500, and the demand “should remain strong at least through the end of 2026.”
Kuo also gave his most precise prediction for the iPhone Ultra’s price, which, according to him, will be “roughly $2,300–$2,500. Kuo previously said the Ultra would cost $2,000 to $2,500.
Notably, Apple recently increased the prices of numerous products; however, a memory chip supply crunch left iPhones alone.
Apple fans have been waiting years to get their hands on a foldable iPhone. And that wait may go on for slightly longer than expected when the iPhone Ultra is announced this fall, if the latest report is accurate.
According to Ming-Chi Kuo, a widely respected industry analyst, Apple is likely to release its first-ever folding phone in a separate batch from the more conventional iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max. This is the same po”Kuoit followed when releasing the iPhone X in 2017.
Limited Early Production Compared to iPhone Ultra Models
Citing his “latest industry survey,” Kuo reported this weekend that Apple is on course to ship roughly 7–8 million units of the folding iPhone in the second half of 2026, but that fewer than a million of those will be ready in the third quarter.
“Compared with Apple’s bargaining power, the Chinese smartphone makers are in a weak spot in terms of getting more supplies of memory chips or increasing the prices,” an executive at a supplier for both Apple and Xiaomi told Nikkei Asia. “
It gives Apple a good motivation to launch the iPhones in spring and take more of their share.”
By contrast, the company will have 20-22 million units of the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max ready to ship in Q3, which Kuo describes as “already meeting the inventory requirement for an official launch.” By implication, the Ultra is not on course to meet that requirement.
Apple’s total smartphone production for 2026 is expected to exceed 220 million units, the report said. Its scale and purchasing power in sourcing memory and components remain significantly stronger than most of its peers, even as shortages driven by AI-related demand ripple through the industry.
With last month’s news that Samsung Display had received Apple’s approval to produce screens for the iPhone Fold with an initial order of 3 million units, the consensus was that Apple was being cautious. Conservative, even.
iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max Inventory Already Meets Launch Targets
Kuo doesn’t offer any specifics of when the Ultra will go on sale beyond the word “later,” but the iPhone X’s launch gives an obvious point of reference.
In 2017, Apple announced the X alongside the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus on September 12, then opened pre-orders of the latter two devices on September 15, with sales beginning on September 22. The X, by contrast, didn’t go on pre-order until October 27 and didn’t hit shelves until November 3, in each case a delay of more than a month.
Bloomberg reported Thursday that Apple is in talks to source memory chips for devices sold in China from Chinese manufacturers ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies, both of which are included on a Pentagon list of companies alleged to support Beijing’s military. Apple has not confirmed the discussions, and Bloomberg reported that negotiations remain ongoing.
Still, what’s another month when you’ve been waiting for years? For all the latest news and rumors, check out our regularly updated iPhone Ultra superguide. To understand how significant 10 million units is, Samsung’s entire Galaxy Z Fold 8 lineup—the Ultra, the Wide, and the Flip 8 combined—has a production target of 5-6 million units. If Nikkei’s figures are accurate, Apple is now planning to produce nearly double that with a single device in its first year in the market.
Significant Increase From Earlier 3 Million Unit Estimate
This is a first-generation product in an unproven market for Apple, with foldable tech that is prone to go very wrong. It makes sense.
But that doesn’t appear to be the case anymore. According to a new report from Nikkei Asia, Apple has now told suppliers to prepare to produce around 10 million foldable iPhones. That’s up from a previous forecast of 7-8 million units, and more than three times the 3 million figure from just weeks ago.
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